Documents

Presentations made during the workshop are archived here. If you do not wish your presentation to appear on the website, please let us know.

Introduction

Bruno Tremblay – Welcome from organizers and Objectives

Lawrence Hislop – Welcome from CliC

Session 1: Trends in Observations

Bruno Tremblay & Adrienne Tivy – Review of observations for winter 2018

Session 2: Processes

Karen Smith – The impact of stratospheric circulation extremes on minimum Arctic sea ice extent

Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth – The role of persistence in sea ice predictability across GCMs

Matthieu Chevallier – What predictability for polar sea ice at the sub-seasonal time scale?

Session 3: Forecasting Projects/Initiatives

Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth & Julienne Stroeve – Sea Ice Outlook review

Nic Wayand – A new Sea Ice Prediction Portal: year-round S2S sea ice forecasting

Gregory Smith – Canadian contributions to the Year of Polar Prediction: deterministic and ensemble coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean forecasts

Axel Schweiger – SIDFEx: The Sea Ice Drift Forecast Experiment

Session 4: Sea-Ice Dynamics

Cecilia Bitz – Coupled wave-ice interactions in the marginal ice zone in simulations with a floe-size distribution

Jean-François Lemieux – Recent model developments for improving the simulation of landfast ice

Sukun Cheng – Impact of sea ice sources on calibrating a wave-ice interaction model

Session 5: Posters

Poster Teasers

Session 6: Initialization

Thomas Collow – Overview of the CPC Sea Ice initialization System (CSIS) and its use in experimental sea ice forecasting at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Ed Blockley – Improved seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice extent using assimilation of CryoSat- 2 thickness

William Merryfield – The importance of temporal consistency for sea ice initialization in seasonal forecasts: Lessons from CanSIPS

Session 7: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting

Hai Lin – Sub-seasonal forecast skill over polar regions in three operational S2S systems

Lorenzo Zampieri – Seamless prediction systems prove potential for skillful Arctic sea-ice forecasts far beyond weather time scales

Wieslaw Maslowski – Toward improved, internally consistent initial conditions for Arctic sea ice prediction at sub-seasonal to interannual time scales

Samy Kamal – Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice in 2017 and 2018 using Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

Michael Sigmond – Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system

David Hebert – Sub-seasonal polar forecasting using the U.S. Navy Earth System Model (NESM)

Session 8: Regional Forecasting

Rubén Cruz-Garcia – An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic Ocean

Emily Niebuhr – Sea ice predictability and the Alaska Sea Ice Program

Mitch Bushuk – Regional Arctic sea-ice prediction: potential vs operational seasonal forecast skill

Session 9: Stochastic & Statistical Methods

Arlan Dirkson – Multi-model calibrated probabilistic seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice coverage

Dmitri Kondrashov – Data-driven stochastic prediction of regional Arctic sea ice extent

Session 10: Forecast Assessment

Barbara Casati – Verification of sea-ice prediction by using distance measures

Hannah Director – Spatiotemporal bias correction of sea ice forecasts

Session 11: Meeting the Needs of End-Users

Objectives

Tim Keane – Activities at Fednav

Lawrence Hislop – Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Stakeholders Workshop at Arctic Frontiers 2018

Gilles Langis – Summary of CIS needs for model guidance

Session 12: Consensus Forecast Exercise + Early Forecast contributions

Gilles Langis – Review of last winter conditions

Bruno Tremblay – Directives + Early Forecast Contributions